I didn't see this coming. Juholt apparently will be able to hold on to his position, for how long is another question. At first glance it seems completely idiotic from an outside position. A leader who has no common sense when it came to morally decisions, can't support his own people in policies he agreed to and speak in double tongue when it comes to complain about the governmental policies made by his opponents, but in his own budget makes little to no difference. Well, I can't say I will have a hard time choosing who to vote for in 2014 (not like 2006, god, partially regret voting for S, but it was the morally best decision since FP more or less screwed up with the hacking scandal). Maybe shouldn't write this in stone since it's three years left till the election, but I will probably indoctrinate myself together with the sheer distaste for the left-green policies that there is no other choice.
So that was the outside perspective, if we look on the inside, does it make any sense? Well, sort of. If you look on what happened during the last year power vacuum when they searched for Juholt, S already then collapsed and showed very low poles. Social democrat stabbed social democrat and there were no coherent political platform. They don't want to do that again since it would only strengthen the view of a party in free fall. So the damage control is to stand still in the storm at the moment and then try to regain confidence. The problem with that is if something else surfaces later during the term of office it will be to late to damage control since it's connected to a person they can't change within a year of the elections. Which brings up a second reason to not change him, there is no-one to elect. This is probably the best person they have (or more correctly, could agree on).
Can Juholt win the 2014 election? Personally (and therefore subjectively) I would say no ceteris paribus. If we take the recent party leader debate in the parliament he once attacked Reinfeldt about people with cancer being forced out of the sickness system to look for work (which is a problematic since it actually should be about the bureaucrats reevaluating the people who just continues to be in the systems and maybe being to harsh in their judgment, which we could bring up together with the bureaucratic structure theory that with a social democratic rule of almost 100 years surly have painted the bureaucrats in the color red and against the Alliance, a little conspiracy for you). He then continues to question the morals of the statsminister, which in light of the current affair doesn't strike out that well. It really backfires. And I have no faith in them anymore, and I'm pretty much one of those they have to win. An urban person with a high education (if we don't take in the fact I don't have a job, but I will, hopefully, have one then).
So, being an aspiring political oracle, who will win after all this? Well, easily all other parties will get a boost from the fall of the social democrats (at least in theory). The left wing voters of the social democrats will emigrate to the left party who is in the middle of electing a new leader (or even two). Most signs points to at least Jonas Sjöstedt will be the chosen one, being more pragmatic he will probably be a hit after the moral collapse and the all to right-wing budget S produced last week. I'm actually gonna guess that they might hit 9-10 % again (ceteris paribus of course) in the next election. The more faithful social democratic voters might join the christan democrats due to their morals or whatever they do. The right wing voters of the party might most likely join either Folkpartiet or Moderaterna, depending on how much they detest Moderaterna or how liberal they feel Folkpartiet is. The green social democratic voters probably goes to the green party (obviously) and lastly those who feel that the established parties just use the people will go to the Sweden Democrats. The only party I see losing is the Center since, well, they have their own politician doing the same (at least with the housing), but since he pretty much was a nobody before the affair broke, he might just make it, but he can't advance in the party since then he would gain the same treatment. An estimation on the fall... 10-15 % if it continues, maybe 5 % if juholt and the other social democratic politicians keep their act together. It doesn't even have to be that they go to a new party, might be enough that they stay on the sofa during election day since that would hurt them badly due to the right voters being more incline to go vote (since they usually have a higher education and are more interested in politics, and at the same time have the possibility to expel the social democrats from power for 12 years, oh yeah). More or less, I expect that the Alliance will gain a majority in the next election, but it could be a false sense of hope, since at least one of the parties (christ democrats) continues to stand below the 4 % needed to get into parliament and the Center party being above and under during different poles since the election. Will be interesting to see the next opinion poll.
So, being an aspiring political oracle, who will win after all this? Well, easily all other parties will get a boost from the fall of the social democrats (at least in theory). The left wing voters of the social democrats will emigrate to the left party who is in the middle of electing a new leader (or even two). Most signs points to at least Jonas Sjöstedt will be the chosen one, being more pragmatic he will probably be a hit after the moral collapse and the all to right-wing budget S produced last week. I'm actually gonna guess that they might hit 9-10 % again (ceteris paribus of course) in the next election. The more faithful social democratic voters might join the christan democrats due to their morals or whatever they do. The right wing voters of the party might most likely join either Folkpartiet or Moderaterna, depending on how much they detest Moderaterna or how liberal they feel Folkpartiet is. The green social democratic voters probably goes to the green party (obviously) and lastly those who feel that the established parties just use the people will go to the Sweden Democrats. The only party I see losing is the Center since, well, they have their own politician doing the same (at least with the housing), but since he pretty much was a nobody before the affair broke, he might just make it, but he can't advance in the party since then he would gain the same treatment. An estimation on the fall... 10-15 % if it continues, maybe 5 % if juholt and the other social democratic politicians keep their act together. It doesn't even have to be that they go to a new party, might be enough that they stay on the sofa during election day since that would hurt them badly due to the right voters being more incline to go vote (since they usually have a higher education and are more interested in politics, and at the same time have the possibility to expel the social democrats from power for 12 years, oh yeah). More or less, I expect that the Alliance will gain a majority in the next election, but it could be a false sense of hope, since at least one of the parties (christ democrats) continues to stand below the 4 % needed to get into parliament and the Center party being above and under during different poles since the election. Will be interesting to see the next opinion poll.
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