Out of the Shadows

I don't know how I pulled it of, but I've now seen all three of the Liberal party's member congresses since 2007. And without actively searching for it (well, except from this year, I actually knew it was coming up so I have had the TV set for SVT Forum), I just zapped between the channels and voila, there it was. Do I remember anything? No, although I actually like politics and this particular party, I just have the TV on beside me while I do my daily chores and sit by my computer. Meaning I'm not that focused and only catch certain bits, and it doesn't help when some are the most boring sounded politicians ever. Sometimes there is a funny speech pattern or voice that penetrate the constant barrage of sounds around me, sometime a word that poke me with interest, but more often then not, it's more interesting reading about what they decide in the newspaper one minute after they clubbed it than listen to their debate about it. The only interesting parts is when you see some more familiar politicians or the analyzes after certain debates outside the conference room or the interviews. Another funny thing with this one is that it was that the congress was in Karlstad. Had it been closer I might even had visited (if I could get in). That is actually kinda funny, since earlier this year we had the Moderates here as well, and the week after that the Green Party. Almost like Karlstad is the unofficial political capital for 2011. Should we expect the rest of them as well? Well, except the Center Party, and no, it isn't because I don't like them that much, but they seem to always have theirs in Sälen.

Anyway, the first opinion poll after last weeks debacle has been published. Problem is it was done before and after the incident broke the news, meaning it probably isn't that reliable if you look at it as a whole. If we take it straight up nothing actually happened, they still hold over 30 % of the voters and a red-green coalition (if it would manifest) would take the lead with 0,1 % and the Sweden Democrats would still be the king makers. But that isn't the interesting part. It was done over two weeks, with the first week before and the second week after. The polling institute was nice enough also to divide the data as before and after and gave an interesting result. Before the news broke, the Social Democrats had around 35 % of the votes while Moderaterna only gained 28 %. Clearly we saw the beginning to once again take charges of the polls like in 2007-2010 (that is before May 2010 when the red-greens presented their first budget and completely collapsed). This week on the other hand, the support dropped to 27 % while Moderaterna jumped to almost 33 %. Interesting shift is it not? The Social Democrats fell with 8 percentage points to a history low. Shadenfraude run rampant through me. Of course, this is nothing to take solid ground on. For that we must see the next poll that happened after the scandal. Then, and only then can we see it this will have long-term effects on the party and even then we can't be sure. History show us that a majority of voters decide which party to vote for the last week and a big bunch of those during election day, telling us that that it is hard to foresee who will win. 

We don't even know what pulls the voters to vote like they do. Last election much time and comments on the newspapers was dedicated for the discussion about what was necessary for to lead the country, to become statsminister. Mona Sahlin had it tough due to the reason for her to take a time-out back in 1995 was because she had used the Riksdags credit card to get over 50 000 SEK ($ 7 140 or € 5555) as some "advance money" on her pay. She had to go at that time(other reasons had to be an internal power struggle inside the party which could be the same as for the current party leader). So during the election campaign the Toblerone-affair was constantly referenced and added with more stories how she had no control over her economy and broken the law for small things like driving a car that was banned from driving and so on. The trust for her has, by more right-commentators granted, was put against Reinfeldt and was supported my the polling institutes that showed a constant advantage for Reinfeldt over Sahlin and was the light in the dark for us others. We did at least have the most trusted politician(s). The point is that she never got away from that, it crippled her career and possibilities to be seen as a Statsminister. And now, this erupted for them. It's not only that he seem to have a bit of a greedy-streak when it comes to money, he doesn't seem to have the organizational skills to lead his party. Policies changes several times over the course of a week and he even back-stabs persons he first green-lighted, but after a couple of hours pulled back his support for. It is not a healthy party we are looking at. So if there is one thing that this poll could do for them, it would be that they realize that they are sick. Unfortunately, the only thing most parties seems to do when confronted with the reality is to change the leader and hope that that would be enough. Moderaterna understood their problem back in 2002 when they almost lost the title as the biggest non-socialistic party to the Liberal Party. They changed leader who at the same time made a complete overhaul over the policies they stood for. The welfare state should still exist, but should be changed in order to put the worker at the center and point out that they are the backbone for our society. Social democratic ideas from old in a more liberal take and the way forward to heal the wounds of a bureaucratic shadow that gripped our country since the 1970's.