The Loser Election

Elections over... so what happened? Well, we apparently have the trickiest parliamentary selection ever. And all parties (except SD) is losers more or less. Wasn't unexpected though, although some things came as a shock. The greens are pretty shocked as they seemed to be around 10 % and fight for the third party place. They end up losing 0,5 %. A bit of Schadenfreude from my side. Everyone else expected them not to climb over 10 % since they have a history of rate good in polls, but fall behind at election. Yeah, and then we have the supposedly left wind that flows over us and was supposed to demolish the center-right government. The left party rose with 0,1 % (which coincidentally is what the whole red-green parties rose with since last election). To be fair the left wind probably was more akin to 2 % if you take into account the feminist party that got a total of 3,1 %, fell below the parliamentary threshold of 4 %, robbing the red-greens of a bit more stable governmental position. Always something good. And the last party of the left bloc, the Social democrats, up 0,5-0,6 % from the parties worst election result in a hundred years. Still, they are probably happy to become prime minister again.

The center-right parties then. Abysmal for all, except maybe the center party that just fell 0,5 %, but was pretty much seen as kicked out of the parliament 1-2 years ago. Also they are probably the party that will have the same party leader in the next election from the right-wing parties... with except from the Christian democrats (who fell 1 %) since they are a bit harder to guess what they will do, their last party leader sat for 30 years so who knows. The Moderat party then, the biggest losers this election with a drop of 7 % to 23 % overall (which historically is a pretty good result, but compared to last elections all time high is pretty dismal). Unexpectedly Reinfeldt left his party leader position as well at the election night and yesterday the finance minister Borg left as well leaving the Moderats without any leader so that will be interesting when the Center-right coalition is without any authority. How did it go for my preferred party? Minus 1,7 % ending on 5,4 %, which came as a shock as all polls suggested either unchanged result around 7 % or a bit lower and then we drops like that.Why did that happened? Should I make a guess it looked like when our party fell, the center party rose with similar numbers which could be seen as a reaction to the much more passionate Center leader that by all accounts made the best out of this election.

The last party, the Sweden democrats. 12,9 %. By all accounts they rose due to around 5 % of the Moderats changed sides in all elections (National, Regional and Local for those wondering). It doesn't matter in which municipality, Landsting or district, the moderats lost between 3-6 % and the Sweden Democrats rose as much. Best guess would be them abandoning their stance in defense issues coupled with a much more relaxed view on immigration and an unwillingness to challenge the Social Democratic ideas around unions and the welfare state. That's my guess at least (coupled with people feeling unsafe and lacking a vision to believe in).

So next discussion will be who will stay and who will go. On  the Center-Right parties Annie Lööf is the only one feeling safe. On the other side I would guess one of the green leaders will go, Åsa Romson who made an abysmal election and pretty much was pushed away for the final debate. Usually the greens rotate 50/50... except last week when she took Wednesday and Thursday on TV4 so that Gustav Fridolin could take center stage on Friday. Will then the Center and/or Liberal party join a Social Democratic/Green minority government? I hope not cause I would be one of those that would punish those parties on election day for "collaborating with the enemy". Making agreements in parliament on certain issues, yes sure, but accepting and supporting their budget? Never! The Center-Left parties can scream how much they want about taking responsibility for Sweden in this situation, but accepting a Social Democratic/Green budget with support from the Left party is not taking responsibility for Sweden.